By Billy the Broker (I just want to stay anonymous)
Once upon a time, in a world gripped by the clutches of a pandemic, workers everywhere decided to play a grand game of musical chairs, coining it the ‘Great Resignation.’ Fast forward to now, and it seems like the music has stopped, or at least slowed to a rhythm more akin to a lazy Sunday jazz brunch. Welcome to the age of the ‘Big Stay,’ where employees are less about the dramatic exits and more about pausing at the door, wondering if the grass is indeed greener on the other side.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, points out that we’ve witnessed a resignation renaissance with 50 million job moves last year – a historical high since the days of Y2K fears. But now, the quit rate is doing the limbo, how low can it go? Down about 5 percent in early 2023 compared to the end of 2022, and 10 percent from the same time in 2022, Richardson says.
Richardson, in a blog post, suggests this Great Resignation is easing into what we might call a comfy ‘Big Stay.’ Workers who once leaped at new opportunities are now more like cautious cats, eyeing up the jump but staying put. Why? Well, the ADP Pay Insights found that job-switchers’ pay increase peaked at 16.4 percent in mid-2022, then simmered down to a more modest 13.2 percent by April 2023.
But some feel that workers are playing a strategic game of Wait-and-See, weighing the pros and cons like a seasoned chess player. The choice? To jump into uncharted waters without a life jacket of a proven track record or stay on the slightly rocky boat they know well, as long as it doesn’t sink.
Companies, on their part, are now like cautious suitors, once bitten, twice shy. After being ghosted by employees in the Resignation Era, they’re not keen on lavish spending sprees to woo new talent. The economic instability, courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, is also making both parties think twice before making a move.
Yet, companies can’t rest on their laurels. It’s a delicate dance of keeping employees content without breaking the bank, especially in a world where every penny counts. Companies that treat their workers well might not need to be the top payers, but they do need to play a fair game.
Flashback to pre-pandemic times, the quit rate was a mere 2.3 percent, then soared to about 3 percent post-pandemic, especially in sectors like hospitality and retail. Job openings are still high, hovering around 10 million, despite a slight dip from their 12 million peak.
Despite some high-profile layoffs, the overall layoff rate has been steady as a rock in 2023. The crystal ball of employment, according to experts, predicts a stable year ahead in 2024. The key? Companies need to step up their game in transparency and fairness. Employees will stick around as long as they believe in the company’s future and feel their paychecks reflect their worth.
So, in summary, the Great Resignation has taken a breather, evolving into the Big Stay. It’s less of a mass exodus and more of a contemplative pause. Companies and employees alike are in a state of recalibration, learning the art of balance. But will they achieve equilibrium in the short or medium term is anyone’s guess, especially after the December 2023 jobs report, which surprised everyone and came in very strong. It turns out that high employment moves the needle in favor of employees.
