Federal Reserve
March’s Jobs Report and the Art of Misdirection
Behind the rosy March employment headline, a quiet exodus: nearly 400,000 Americans gave up on the job market in a single month. By...
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at March Meeting as Oil Price Spike Clouds Outlook
Wells Fargo economists expect two rate cuts remain on the table in 2026, though elevated inflation from energy costs could push the timeline...
Rising Oil Prices Cloud U.S. Growth Outlook as Labor Market Stalls, Analysts Warn
The bank’s March economic outlook trims consumer spending forecasts and raises inflation expectations amid the Iran-driven energy shock, while still projecting the expansion...
February CPI Shows Disinflation Losing Momentum as Energy Costs Surge
Wells Fargo economists warn that a developing Middle East conflict could push energy goods prices sharply higher in March, complicating the Federal Reserve’s...
U.S. Payrolls Contract by 92,000 in February as Labor Market Stumbles, Fed Outlook Dims
Wells Fargo Economics says one-off factors only partially explain the unexpected decline, with the Iran conflict adding new complexity to an already uncertain...
Wells Fargo Economists Signal Disinflation Progress Is Stalling as February CPI Looms
Rising energy costs, tariff pass-through, and sticky shelter inflation are expected to keep consumer prices advancing at a pace well above the Federal...
March Rate Cut Unlikely as Labor Market Stabilizes, Wells Fargo Sees 2 More Cuts in 2026
Solid consumer spending, 70K average monthly payroll growth and core PCE easing to 2.6 percent by Q4 shape updated U.S. outlook After a...
Beyond AI: U.S. Capital Investment Shows Early Signs of Broadening Recovery
New data on durable goods orders and industrial production point to stabilizing capex in traditional sectors, even as the AI investment boom continues...
CRE Capital Flows Rise in Q4 2025 as Commercial and Multifamily Originations Gain Momentum
Wells Fargo Economics says easing monetary policy is supporting broader lending activity across property types Capital is beginning to move more freely across...
U.S. Payrolls Rise 130,000 in January as Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Wells Fargo Economics says stronger hiring and steady 3.7 percent wage growth bolster case for Federal Reserve to hold rates steady A year...
Q4 Employment Cost Index Rises 3.4%, Marking Slowest Compensation Growth Since 2021
Wells Fargo Economics says labor costs remain in a “Goldilocks zone” as wage pressures ease and benefit growth moderates As policymakers weigh the...
Data Center Sales Push U.S. CRE Transactions to Highest Level Since 2022
Wells Fargo Economics points to falling rates and a single outsized deal as key drivers behind a $186B fourth-quarter rebound After two years...
