Wells Fargo Economics
Consumer Spending Holds Steady Through October, But Warning Signs Emerge for Year-End
High-frequency data points to weakening momentum heading into year-end despite solid October performance American consumer spending demonstrated underlying resilience in October even as...
Construction Labor Costs Rise 3.8% Despite Broader Economic Cooling
Employment Cost Index shows construction bucking trend of moderating wage growth in Q3 The construction industry is charting its own course in the...
Inflation Expected to Hold Near 3% Through Mid-2026 as Government Shutdown Disrupts October Data Collection
Wells Fargo projects two-month core CPI rise of 0.48 percent between September and November The October government shutdown has created an unusual gap...
Commercial Real Estate Market Gains Momentum as Property Prices Rise 4.2 percent Year Over Year
Federal Reserve rate cuts drive $1.9 billion reduction in distressed properties, transaction volumes jump 13.2 percent year-to-date The commercial real estate market is...
Labor Market Wobbles as Unemployment Hits Post-Pandemic High
The U.S. labor market’s struggles intensified in November, with unemployment climbing to its highest level since the pandemic’s end and job growth remaining...
Shutdown-Delayed Jobs Data Predicted to Reveal Federal Layoffs and Rising Unemployment
Shutdown-delayed October data and a November unemployment rate near 4.5 percent could put “maximum employment” at risk As Washington’s budget battles continue to...
September Trade Deficit Narrows to $52.8B on Gold Exports, But GDP Impact Limited by Statistical Treatment
Non-monetary gold accounts for $6.1 billion of $8.8 billion export increase, while capital goods shipments decline $3.3 billion The turbulence in global trade...
Employment Cost Index Rises 3.5% Year-Over-Year in Q3, Slowest Growth Since Mid-2021
Quarterly wage and benefit increases moderate to 0.8 percent as labor market cooling reduces pressure on employers to raise compensation The cooling trend...
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates to 3.5%–3.75% as Committee Signals Slower Pace of Easing Ahead
Central bank’s December quarter-point reduction draws three dissents as officials project the policy rate holding at 3.375 percent through 2026 The Federal Reserve...
Durable Goods Orders Rise 0.5% in September as Shipments Point to Solid Q3 Capex Momentum
Core capital goods orders climb 0.9 percent, supporting Wells Fargo Economics’ 6 percent annualized equipment-spending estimate A year defined by uneven business investment...
Retail Sales Rose Just 0.2% in September as Control Group Slips 0.1%
Wells Fargo Economics says a soft September keeps holiday spending forecasts intact but leaning toward the lower end of the 3.5 percent–4 percent...
Consumer Confidence Falls as Job Market Concerns Overshadow Lower Gas Prices
November reading marks second-lowest level in four years while labor differential continues decline American consumers are growing increasingly uneasy about their economic prospects,...
