Home AEC Architecture Billings Index Signals Concerns for Commercial Real Estate

Architecture Billings Index Signals Concerns for Commercial Real Estate

AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index, Commercial Real Estate
Courtesy of Felipe Galvan

By The Registry Staff

Architectural firms throughout the United States witnessed a substantial business downturn in September, raising concerns about the future of the commercial real estate market in the upcoming year. CNBC reported that the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index took a sharp nosedive to 44.8 in September, marking its lowest point since December 2020, a period marked by the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index serves as an indicator of future demand for non-residential construction activity, encompassing commercial and industrial projects. The index operates on a scale where any score below 50 denotes worsening business conditions, reflecting a growing number of architectural firms struggling with a decline in billings. Its primary objective is to anticipate construction activity trends nine to twelve months ahead. 

In addition to the decline in billings, the report highlights the reluctance of clients to commit to new projects, resulting in a slump in newly signed design contracts. The reduced backlogs are indicative of some of the challenges architecture firms are facing in securing new projects, which further compounds the issues within the industry.

Commercial real estate is currently facing a double-edged challenge. The return to office has been sluggish, affecting not only office buildings but also the retail stores and restaurants that depend on office worker foot traffic. Many downtown areas have witnessed significant economic strain. Moreover, the increase in interest rates has exacerbated the problem, leading to a slowdown in investments and deal-making across various sectors.

The decline in business does not appear uniform across the country. The West seems to be the hardest hit, with a slower return to office in comparison to other regions. This divergence further accentuates the difficulties faced by the commercial real estate sector, as different locations experience varying levels of business recovery.

Among different real estate sectors, architecture firms with a focus on multifamily residential projects have experienced a more pronounced decline, adds the report. Multifamily construction has experienced a boom over the past few years, resulting in a record number of units on the market and putting downward pressure on rents. Analysts are cautioning that this decline in apartment activity may be another concerning sign for the future of the real estate market.

The sharp decline in business among architecture firms signals future potential distress in the commercial real estate market. The combined effects of a slow return to office, increasing interest rates, and fluctuations in the multifamily residential sector raise concerns about the industry’s near-term outlook.